As everyone keeps saying: "It's still early." With that in mind, who benefits the most from time?
Here is my personal ranking of the candidates who will "age" best on the shelf:
5. John McCain: While I don't agree with using "the age issue," McCain would be our oldest president. The fact is, every day he gets a day older. More importantly -- because he has been essentially running for president for eight years -- every day, he gets a little staler. I think time benefits him least. His organization is the best, though, so he may be able to compensate for this disadvantage.
4. Brownback/Gilmore/Hunter/Huckabee: I've lumped these folks together, which, I'm sure may bother some. But I think they are essentially in the same boat, as it relates to time. As time elapses, it will likely become clearer that these candidates cannot keep pace with the frontrunners. For example, there will be a finance report in March. This report will likely show "the big 3" with insurmountable fundraising advantages. That's not to say that one of them couldn't catch on fire...
3. Rudy Giuliani: As time elapses, voters will become more aware of his past positions on social issues, etc. Of course, I'm assuming primary voters will care about these issues -- I'm beginning to think they may not care as much about them as they used to (or, more precisely, safety and security may trump social issues this cycle). Either way, Rudy would benefit from the election being held today. It's hard to stay on top forever. Can he stay on offense and run out the clock? Time will tell.
2. Mitt Romney: Assuming that Romney has gotten all his bad news out early, he may benefit the most from time. Few voters know him, and he is an extremely charismatic and attractive candidate. As such, I'm guessing that the more exposure he gets -- the better his numbers will look. You can't meet the guy and not like him. Still, every time Romney has calmed things down, another "blast from the past" has arisen. Is there another shoe waiting to drop?
1. Newt Gingrich: Nobody knows if Newt will get in, or not. By not getting in the race, he has essentially avoided taking any hits, while continuing to build up his name and organization. In short, he is doing the rope-a-dope (he's sitting back while the other candidates wear themselves out). This also reminds me of Gandhi (I know this is an unusual analogy). Gandhi realized he couldn't win a real battle with guns and tanks, so he used "peaceful resistance" to defeat the British. Newt is brilliantly using the same strategy. You can't attack him, because he's not in the fight. As time expires, he will still be fresh. Newt may be the biggest winner, when it comes to time.
... While a good bottle of wine improves with age, the public is fickle when it comes to politicians. Let me know your thoughts on these predictions.
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